Shutdown’s consequences: Permanent reduction in force? No more Fat Bear Weeks?

With just five days until a federal government shutdown, Republicans and Democrats remain locked in a funding standoff, with Democrats insisting on more spending and the Trump administration is already planning how to leverage the lapse in appropriations.

A leaked memo from the Office of Management and Budget directs agencies to prepare not only for furloughs but also for potential permanent reductions in certain federal programs and positions. That means jobs could be cut.

The document, addressed to deputy secretaries and general counsels, outlines steps agencies should take immediately if funding expires on Sept. 30.

The memo cites partisan demands from congressional Democrats as the reason for the looming shutdown.

It notes that the House recently passed a short-term continuing resolution, HR 5371, to fund the government at current levels through Nov. 21. The administration supports this measure, but Democrats in the Senate have opposed it.

While many Trump administration priorities will continue under mandatory funding authorized in HR 1, the memo states that programs without that backing would face deeper consequences. Agencies are instructed to “use this opportunity” to consider issuing Reduction in Force notices for employees working on programs, projects, or activities that:

1. lose discretionary funding on Oct. 1,
2. lack another source of funding, and
3. are not aligned with the president’s priorities.

Such RIF notices would come in addition to furloughs typically associated with a lapse in funding. Once new appropriations are enacted, OMB says agencies should revise workforce levels to retain only the minimum staff required to carry out statutory duties.

The guidance signals a sharper approach than in past shutdowns, using the disruption not only as a temporary pause but as a potential inflection point to reshape federal operations.

OMB reminded agencies that updated lapse plans were due on August 1 and reiterated that plans should not assume repurposing funds or transfers without prior approval.

The memo concludes by expressing hope that Congress will enact a short-term funding bill before the Sept. 30 deadline but advises that preparations for a shutdown and possible long-term workforce cuts must continue.