At least five new liquefied natural gas export plants have won approval for construction so far this year, with several more likely to be cleared by the end of 2025.
But that rapid buildout could spell trouble for the industry, Shell CEO Wael Sawan cautioned Monday at an event hosted by the Economic Club of New York, as reported by SeekingAlpha.com.
Sawan said companies are committing to build so much new capacity that some projects may struggle to turn a profit once they begin shipping fuel.
“The number of final investment decisions being taken surprises me, if I am honest, because it’s at the higher end of the cost curve. Yet those capacities continue to come in,” Sawan said. “So it’s not economically fully rational.”
According to the International Energy Agency, global LNG capacity is on track to climb nearly 50% by 2030, raising the risk of an oversupplied market. This year alone, companies have committed to projects capable of exporting 75.2 billion cubic meters of LNG annually. That is more than any year in history, and almost as much as was approved in the entire 2020–2024 period combined.
Even with the risk of oversupply, Shell is betting heavily on natural gas. Sawan said he expects LNG to become the company’s biggest contribution to global energy over the next decade, as developing nations shift away from coal to cut emissions.
Shell’s LNG Canada project, which began shipping fuel earlier this year, is central to that strategy. The facility’s second phase has backing from the Canadian government, though Sawan did not give a timeline for expansion.
A ‘glut’ of LNG projects in North America may pose a risk to our AK907-LNG project in receiving FID approval. Although, it may force our potential project to eliminate the 800+ mile Pipeline and associated Compressor Stations, shipping LNG product directly from the North Slope using Arctic Grade Ships and Ice Breakers (kinda like what they already do in the Sabetta Port on the Yamal Peninsula in northern Russia)?
Mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the dearest of them all? Yep, AKLNG.