By SENIOR CONTRIBUTOR 
REAL CLEAR POLITICS
As four of the nation’s most accurate pollsters, we recently formed the National Association of Independent Pollsters. The four founding member organizations participated in a joint national survey of likely voters, asking which party they prefer in next year’s midterm elections.
Our association will be announcing new members next week. Meanwhile, the four founding firms each surveyed the exact same questions nationwide. Results were combined and then weighted.
The national survey included 2,071 likely voters. It was conducted Sept. 6-13, 2025. The margin of error is plus or minus 2%.
The two generic ballot tests were as follows:
- In the 2026 midterm congressional elections next fall, for whom would you most likely vote?
Democrat Candidate: 45%
Republican Candidate: 43%
Undecided: 12%
- If the 2026 congressional elections were held tomorrow, and you had to decide between the following choices, for whom would you most likely vote?
Democrat Candidate: 47%
Republican Candidate: 46%
Undecided/Would Not Vote: 5%
As of Sept. 16, the RealClearPolitics 2026 generic ballot average showed Democrats leading the ballot test for the midterms 44% to 41%.
Here is a list of our major collective thoughts based on the survey and the demographic breakdowns:
- While Democrats are in many national surveys polling poorly as a party, Republicans would be unwise to assume that will translate into a winning year in ’26. We recognize that at this point prior to the 2022 midterms (Sept. ’21), most polls showed Democrats leading somewhere between one point, to as much as eight points. That narrowed before the actual contest with pollsters, ranging from ABC News to The New York Times, and including several of our member organizations, in their last pre-election polls showing Republicans leading in the generic ballot test. As most will recall, 2022 turned out to be less spectacular than predicted for the GOP. Republicans would be wise to recognize that despite perceived Democrat weakness, without Donald Trump on the ballot their task is more difficult than most might believe.
- Our poll did, however, show a narrowing of the gap versus the average of all recent polls. It should be noted that our surveys started prior to the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk. We did not survey reaction to Kirk’s murder, given that the surveys were set prior to the event. However, the bulk of our time surveying occurred after Kirk’s death. It is speculative to link the incident to Republicans reducing the Democrats’ lead. But the survey does show that Kirk’s efforts to reach the youngest of voters is still needed by the GOP. Our survey showed voters age 18-29 favored the generic Democratic candidate by some 10 points or more in both ballot questions we asked of them.
- For both parties there was some good news when it came to the racial demographic breakdown. Republicans continued to hold on to their advantage among white voters and are receiving support from African American voters in the mid-30 percentile range – a number once thought of as impossible for the GOP. But Democrats continue to have strong support among Hispanic/Latino voters (50%-36%) as well as among Asians and respondents of other races.
- Turnout and voter intensity are crucial in determining the outcomes of tight races for the House and Senate in midterm elections. Although we did not survey public opinion related to last week’s tragedy, our collective experience suggests that if the midterms were held tomorrow, there would likely be a significant surge in GOP motivated voters due to the recent events. The reaction to Charlie Kirk’s assassination has sparked a national expression of grief and a renewed determination among younger voters to continue his efforts on college campuses. However, with over a year until the elections, the Democrats currently hold a very slim advantage; this small lead appears to be diminishing as the actual contests approach.
 Authors are Matt Towery , Mark Mitchell , Robert Cahaly , Rich Baris
Suzanne Downing